Throwing Stars

My (Not So) Definitive Ranking of the NFL’s 32 Starting QBs

By: Jeff McDonough

No position in sports comes with more prestige and responsibility than starting quarterback in the National Football League. That’s why fans and front offices alike fixate on their team having a good one. For the haves that might mean deifying your long-time starter to a point beyond reproach and for the have-nots that might mean searching desperately for your “Franchise Quarterback” of the future. Most teams in the league fall somewhere in the middle, however — a state of convincing yourself and others that your quarterback is in fact good, whether or not it's true. “Elite” for some reason became a weird benchmark that we would all argue over. Does that mean the Top-3? Top dozen? Do you need to be a fantasy stud? Do you need to win a Super Bowl? No one can decide. Thankfully, I think the conversation has evolved from this shallow level, so that’s the one and only time I’ll use that godforsaken term in these rankings.

Because of both our fixation on the quarterback position and the evolution of the game/rulebook, quarterback play has never been better. There are so many QBs putting up ridiculous statistics. In this era though, you can still put up good numbers and be literally a below average starting quarterback — there are only 32 of them, I’ll let you do the math. So if everyone has a decent quarterback, what’s the difference? Why is the position still so important if almost every team has a capable guy? I’ll answer that question with a story from early last season. In the 2nd quarter of the Bears-Cardinals Week 2 matchup, Jay Cutler went down with a hamstring injury and missed the rest of that game, as well as the following one. Now, why does this matter? We all know the Bears were — and are — terrible, and most people don’t even think Jay Cutler is any good. Well, to start last season, the Bears lost in Week 1 to the Packers by 8, and were down 7 to the Cardinals in Week 2 when Cutler went down — the Bears were playing tight with, what ended up being, two of the very best teams in the NFL. From the moment Cutler went down to when he returned in Week 4 — that mere game and a half — under the guidance of Cutler’s backup Jimmy Clausen, the Bears were outscored 53 to 9. When Cutler returned, the Bears beat the decent Raiders at home and then the 11-5 Chiefs in KC. The terrible Bears and the lousy Jay Cutler went 6-8 in games that Cutler started and finished — including a few nice wins like at Lambeau on Thanksgiving night — and he ended up with 21 TDs, 11 INTs and 3,659 yards passing on the year.

The greatest difference in tiers of quarterback play is not the difference between great and good, or the difference between good and okay, but instead the difference between okay and bad. The difference between having a Jay Cutler and having a replacement level QB like Jimmy Clausen is immense. That fact is why so many teams are locking up their decent quarterbacks and trying to convince themselves and everyone else that they are great, or can be. The grass isn’t always greener. Twelve quarterbacks in the NFL have an average annual salary of over $20 million. Eleven more make $16 million a year or more.  For a frame of reference, no non-QB makes $20 million a year, and only nine make $16 million a year. So 23 of the 32 teams are paying their QB a buttload of money. Seven of the remaining nine teams have a high pick youngster on their rookie deal — and five of those seven were Top-3 picks in the draft. Only the Jets and the Browns don’t have either a QB they recently picked high in the draft or one that makes $16 million a year. Sometimes you gotta zig when they zag! So I think it’s fair to say that 30 of the 32 teams — well, 29 if we discount the 49ers’ $19 million backup/activist — think that they have their franchise quarterback. It is also fair to say that a lot of them are wrong. But hey, at least they don’t have Jimmy Clausen. 

The criteria I am choosing to use to define the “best” quarterbacks in the NFL is as follows: 1) Individual Track Record, 2) Team Success and 3) Future Promise, in that order. This is not a futures ranking or “who I’d want for the next 10 years.” This is right now, who are the best QBs in the league? Who has done the most to prove their standing? Now some people’s promise is enough to elevate them, some people have accomplished great things but are no longer good, some people put up great statistics but fail when it counts most and some people win games but owe most of their success to the team they’re on. I try to weigh all those factors and pick who I think the best guys are in 2016. Also, I am ranking who I view as the #1 chosen option for each team. So apologies to Week 1 starters Dak Prescott and Jimmy Garoppolo, high picks Jared Goff and Paxton Lynch, out-for-the-season Teddy Bridgewater and Mets prospect Tim Tebow. I’m going with who I can discern is each team’s “starter.” Now let’s get to the rankings!

The Going-Nowhere’s

32. Blaine Gabbert, 49ers

I loathe Blaine Gabbert. I realize some people have changed their tune on him since he was… better? …last year for the Niners than his DREADFUL stint in Jacksonville, but he’s still Blaine Gabbert. In my opinion, no high-pick quarterback has ever made it so immediately clear he was not going to be good. Not Ryan Leaf, not Akili Smith, not JaMarcus Russell, no one. To be fair to Gabbert, in his eight starts in San Fran, he went 3-5 with 10 TDs and 7 INTs. So yay improvement! Better than taking over a team that had just gone 8-8 and going 5-22 in your tenure there. Some may argue this new rejuvenated(!) Gabbert doesn’t belong dead last, but no one would have him higher than 30. He’s awful, even Chip Kelly can’t save him.

31. Case Keenum, Rams

Case Keenum and Blaine Gabbert are starting quarterbacks in Week 1 of the 2016 NFL season. Not because of injury, the chosen #1 options. Okay then.

The Projects

30. Trevor Siemian, Broncos

I’m not sure how wise this looks after last night, but oh well. Sieman is 1-0 after beating last year’s best team in primetime. It’s still crazy that the defending Super Bowl champs are starting a 7th round pick with no experience. Peyton retired, Brock left for Houston, Sanchize flopped and Lynch wasn’t ready yet, so here we are. Now hey, maybe we’ve got the next Tom Brady on our hands. Who’s to say? I’m not betting on it, but what do I know, I hadn’t heard of this guy a month ago.

29. Carson Wentz, Eagles

Oh boy. This offseason, the Eagles signed two quarterbacks for salaries of $24.5 million per year total and then traded up to #2 in the draft for a third. Then they traded their starter eight days before the season began, and promoted their rookie from Division 1-AA, who everyone knows isn’t ready, to become the starter. Go get ‘em, kid.

The Second-Chancers

28. Sam Bradford, Vikings

Well, third chance for him, I guess. This one is a tough spot for everyone. When you’re a playoff team whose QB goes on IR in the preseason, what are you to do? The Vikings decided to give the Eagles a 1st round pick for Sam Bradford. I almost don’t blame them because I think this team is really talented, but that is a lot for a QB — that as you can tell — I don’t think is very good. I don’t think Teddy Bridgewater is very good either, so the dropoff will probably be more do to unfamiliarity with the system than talent. For the Eagles, when you can get a 1st rounder for a non-good QB, do it — even if you’re left starting the kid from North Dakota State. As for the Vikings, this is a desperate move to respond to terrible luck and Bradford might not even start Week 1. That honor might go to 36 year-old career backup Shaun Hill. But cheer up, because #HeATerp

27. Brock Osweiler, Texans

Nothing represents the desperate need to feel like you have a plan at quarterback more than the Texans giving a benched QB with seven career starts a $72 million contract. Now Osweiler was okay in his time for the Broncos last year, helping them secure the 1-Seed on the way to their Super Bowl title. He ended up faltering enough that he was benched for Peyton Manning, who by no exaggeration, was the worst quarterback in the league last year. And the Broncos noticed no difference, and the defense dragged his old ass to the Promised Land. Osweiler is young and does have some potenital, but these are the facts heading into his newly minted marriage with Houston.

26. Robert Griffin III, Browns

Robert Griffin arguably had the best rookie season a QB has ever had. And it’s been all downhill since. He’s been injured and benched and inactive and released. Can he ever reclaim even a glimpse of the heights to which he once soared, or is he far too damaged at this point? I’m not ruling it out entirely for a little bit of a bounce back, but Cleveland isn’t exactly the best place to do that.

25. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jets

Fitzpatrick was great last year. He had 31 TDs, 15 INTs, 3,905 yards and the Jets went 10-6. But when hIS team needed him most, when they were fighting for their playoff lives in Week 17, he threw three interceptions in the 4th quarter, cost them the game and they missed the postseason. The Jets got everything they could’ve hoped for from a 33 year-old journeyman who was only their starter because Geno Smith got punched in the face by a teammate, but the Jets knew he wasn’t “the answer” at QB. A testy offseason stalemate led to Fitzpatrick signing a one-year deal for a “measly” $12 million. That’s about what Luke Kuechly makes per year, just FYI. Fitz may not be their answer in three years, or even two, but the Jets have a good team and in the face of almost no other options, it was smart to retain their QB — and even smarter not to overpay him.

The Is-He-Good?’s

24. Blake Bortles, Jaguars

I’m not a huge fan of Bortles. He put up some really big numbers last year, but the Jags are loaded with weapons around him and he did a lot of that in garbage time of losing efforts. If I’m the Jaguars, I’m thrilled that he showed the promise he did last and hope he continues to improve. I’m still not sold that Bortles will be the quarterback to lead anybody anywhere, but it remains to be seen.

23. Kirk Cousins, Redskins

Through Week 6 of last season, Cousins was in Year 4, but only started 15 games (and additionally played some as a backup), which amounts to basically one full season. Up to that point, his career numbers were 24 TDs, 27 INTs and a W-L record of 4-11. In the last 10 games of 2016, something changed. He stopped throwing interceptions — to the tune of 23 TDs, 3 INTs, a 7-3 W-L record and an NFC East title. Then come the playoffs, the Redskins got their asses kicked at home by the Packers. Going forward, the question is whether we’re going to get “You like that?!” Kirk or turnover-machine Kirk. The Redskins aren’t sure either, and unable to agree on a long-term deal, Cousins will become the first QB in four years to play a season under the franchise tag.

22. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins

Through four years in the league, Tannehill has proved that he’s an adequate starting QB. He hasn’t missed a start, has had decent numbers and the Dolphins always win 6-8 games. I think that’s what he is. Decent. I don’t expect some Year 5 leap where all of a sudden he’s an All-Pro or leading the Dolphins to a conference championship game.

21. Jay Cutler, Bears

I touched on him earlier, but I like Jay Cutler. He has some raw skills that many ahead of him on this list flat out don’t have. Cutler gets a bad rap because he looks like a sourpuss and one time he tore his MCL in a playoff game and couldn’t continue. What a wuss! Cutler can do things that win his teams games single-handedly. But he often does things that cause his teams to lose, like get injured or throw interceptions. Cutler has missed 14 games the past five seasons and has thrown 141 interceptions in 134 career starts.

The Up-and-Comers

20. Tyrod Taylor, Bills

After four years as Joe Flacco’s backup and hardly any playing time, Taylor was a Pro Bowler in his first year as a starter with Buffalo. He is the best version of a game-manager, another cliché that earns people’s ire. He didn’t throw the ball a ton, relying on the Bills’ defense and running game. When he did he was careful with it. Only six interceptions in his 14 starts, combined with 3,035 yards, 20 TDs and an 8-6 W-L record. A wrinkle Taylor adds in is that he is a dynamic runner, with 568 yards and four TDs rushing last season. And when someone is open down field, boy can he sling it. So he’s both a game-manager and a playmaker. Is that an oxymoron?

19. Derek Carr, Raiders

Carr was alright as a rookie and then took the leap you would want as a sophomore. There’s a little bit of hype for this Raiders team for the first time in ages. We’ll have to see if the numbers Carr put up while going 10-22 were empty calories or whether he can turn Oakland into a winner.

18. Marcus Mariota, Titans

He showed some real aptitude as a rookie, but he has to get a grade of “incomplete” after he missed time when Tennessee was so conservative handling his injury. I understand why, but Mariota still doesn’t have a full season under his belt. Between his college career and what we did see in 2016, I’m still a big believer in his high ceiling — which we could start seeing immediately.

The Proven Veterans

17. Alex Smith, Chiefs

Smith is the perfect example of a league-average starting quarterback, so it shouldn’t be surprising where he lands on this list. He always puts up fair numbers, doesn’t turn the ball over much and is a great runner as well. He’s good enough to win with, but maybe not good enough to be the reason your team is a winner. The last five years he’s gone 49-21-1 as a starter. In his five playoff games, he’s thrown 11 TDs and only 1 INT. There are much worse things in this world to be than Alex Smith.

16. Matt Ryan, Falcons

The shine on Matt Ryan has worn off after three seasons where the Falcons lost a lot of games and he threw a lot of interceptions. He used to be regarded among the best in the league, but I always had some doubt because of the fact that he played in a dome with an embarrassment of riches as far as the skill position guys he worked with. He can still put up some numbers, but I don’t know if he’ll ever make Atlanta back into the contender they once were.

15. Matt Stafford, Lions

Stafford always puts up a gaudy stat line, throws a lot of picks and his teams have varying amounts of success. The Lions have had a losing record in five of the seven seasons since they drafted Stafford. They still have some decent weapons, but with Megatron now retired, this season will prove to be a new challenge for Stafford.

14. Andy Dalton, Bengals

Last year was Andy Dalton’s year. He was 2nd in the entire league in passer rating and led the Bengals to a 10-2 start to the year. Then he broke his thumb and his season was over. After four decent seasons, four playoff berths and four horrible playoff performances, Dalton and the Bengals were both at their best. Then Lady Luck rained on their parade, and they lost in the first round of the playoffs once again — this time with Dalton on the sidelines.

13. Tony Romo, Cowboys

Poor Tony. In 2014, Romo was arguably the best QB in the league. He won a playoff game for just the second time in his career. And then the “Dez Caught It” game happened. Then the next season he broke his collarbone in Week 2. He returned in Week 11 only to have his season ended the following week after re-injuring the same shoulder. Then he broke his back this preseason. As an oft-injured 36 year-old, Romo’s chances of finally making a deep playoff run may be over. But the Cowboys decided to keep him on their active roster, so maybe he returns sooner than we expected.

The Dirty Dozen

12. Jameis Winston, Buccaneers

Some may balk at Winston’s inclusion in my Top-12, and lists that focus more on long-term potential probably have him higher. Either way, Winston had a great rookie year. He already showed poise, a strong arm and some bruising running ability. After his lofty expectations when drafted first overall last year, I feel comfortable saying, “Jameis is already one of the best dozen guys in the league.” I expect him to keep moving up and up on this list as time goes by.

11. Joe Flacco, Ravens

Flacco was bad last year even before ending the season on IR — missing action for the first time in his career. The year before that he had a career high in yards and TDs, his 2nd lowest INT figure, won a playoff game in Pittsburgh and then went shot-for-shot with Tom Brady and the eventual Super Bowl champs in Foxboro. Some may have him a little lower on their lists, and that’s fine. But he has a proven track record of being a steady hand for great teams and playing his best football when it matters most. Like in the 2012 playoffs, when he had arguably the best postseason in NFL history with 1,140 yards, 11 TDs and 0 INTs en route to a Lombardi Trophy. I’m sure you non-Ravens fans never get tired of hearing that.

10. Eli Manning, Giants

This list is looking like it’s getting to the parody stage, but I’m just gonna push past it. Hey, did you guys know Eli Manning has won two Super Bowls? And he beat Tom Brady in both of them?! Ugh, I hate myself. Seriously though, Eli is still good. He’s had 8,846 yards, 65 TDs and 28 INTs with a 62.84 completion percentage the last two seasons. Now if the overall team can improve a little, and put itself into playoff contention, well, then we’ll see if Eli still has some of that “playing best when it matters most” magic.

9. Andrew Luck, Colts

Last season people finally figured out that Andrew Luck is not, Joe Montana, Aaron Rodgers and Air Bud all rolled into one. The hype had gotten out of control. While immensely talented and having a ceiling as high as anyone, he had yet to take his place amongst the tippy top on this list, but was being ranked there by many nonetheless. He was bad last year. It wasn’t just that he ended up getting hurt. He finished the year 32nd in passer rating for crying out loud! He's rightly been docked for it and his rankings on these lists has fallen. Now, I think the hate might’ve gone a little too far for some and we can’t forget how freakin’ good this guy can be. Still, he’s thrown 55 interceptions in his 55 career starts and his three playoff runs have come to an end with disastrous performances unbecoming of a great quarterback. I won’t be shocked if he’s near the top of this list soon, but I think we’ve now realized he’s more of a Brett Favre than a Tom Brady. But hey, who doesn’t love a gunslinger?

8. Carson Palmer, Cardinals

Palmer currently leads the most potent passing attack in the NFL. He’s been a revelation in Arizona after the Raiders pretty much just gave him away. In his three years in the desert, Palmer has tossed it all over the field and posted an ungodly 29-9 W-L record. He finally put it all together last season. The Cardinals went 13-3, earned a playoff bye, he had a career year at age 35, was named an All-Pro and out-dueled Aaron Rodgers to win a playoff game. Then he imploded in the NFC Championship Game with six turnovers in just about as bad a game as you will ever see anyone play on a stage that big. The Cards enter 2016 as one of the favorites to win it all and that’s in large part to the play of Palmer. But a career full injuries and team changes and interceptions and playoff disappointments keep him from being higher on this list.

7. Philip Rivers, Chargers

The Chargers had a rough year last year, but Rivers is still the man. He’s tough as hell, he never misses a start, he always delivers big numbers and despite not ever reaching a Super Bowl, he’s had more playoff success than almost everyone below him on this list.

The Crème de la Crème

6. Drew Brees, Saints

Drew Brees puts up video game numbers and he’s been doing it for a decade straight — and that’s just counting his tenure in New Orleans. He’s led the league in passing six times, including the last two years. It’s not like he’s some playoff choke-artist either. He may be older now, but I’m still rolling with Drew. The Saints probably aren’t good, but don’t blame Brees. Football Outsiders have measured every defense based on DVOA since 1989 and rated the 2015 Saints defense the WORST OF ALL-TIME.

5. Russell Wilson, Seahwaks

It’s hard to start your career much better than Wilson has. He wins 10+ games every year, he wins a playoff game every year and he's been a champion and a runner-up. He’s had very much the Tom Brady arc so far — competent right away on an excellent team with some major playoff success and then we see the switch flip where it becomes his team and he starts piling up individual statistics. Wilson led the league in passer rating last year.

4. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

As much as I don’t like the guy, it’s hard to argue with his success. His toughness is unmatched — just hanging onto the ball as long as he can until an opportunity for a schoolyard play breaks open. He sometimes gets clobbered doing this and has suffered many injuries because of it. Yet every time I think he’s headed for the IR, nope, “I’ll be back in a couple weeks.” He’s won over twice as many games as he’s lost in his 12-year career, has two rings and 10 playoff wins and now presides over the most potent offense in football. He’s finally hit his statistical peak the last few years, and if those guys can all stop getting hurt and suspended, Ben may add ring #3 this year.

3. Cam Newton, Panthers

There may have never been a dual threat QB in league history like Cam Newton. There’s been faster and more agile quarterbacks, sure, but never a guy who was more of a scoring threat with both his arm and his feet. Newton was stellar last year, earned league MVP, nearly (shockingly) led the Panthers to an undefeated regular season and then ultimately came up short in the Super Bowl. He’s still young. He’ll recover. He’s already won three playoff games. For those clamoring that he hasn’t won a ring yet, you know how many QBs on this list who have won Super Bowls? Seven. You know how many have been MVP? Three. That’s a big freakin’ deal.

2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers

Rodgers has got all the tools you could possibly want in a quarterback — vision, arm strength, poise, timing, athleticism. He may be the most naturally gifted QB there’s ever been. MVPs, All-Pros, a Super Bowl, you name it. He didn’t have a phenomenal year last year by his standards, especially down the stretch when he was uncharacteristically throwing interceptions and they lost out on a division title to the Vikings. Outside of the one Super Bowl year — in which Rodgers performance was amongst the best in league history — he and the Packers have a playoff record of just 3-6. I know this is somewhat nit-picky, but we’re deciding between one and two. Now is the time to pick nits! Rodgers will go down as an all-time great. How he finishes his thirties will determine if he’s remembered more on par with Steve Young or Joe Montana.

1. Tom Brady, Patriots

Speaking of Joe Cool, let’s get to the man tied with him for most career rings as a starting QB at four! Yes, Tom Terrific concludes our list at the top spot. He’s suspended the first four games this year for an equipment violation, but the Patriots still enter the year as Vegas favorites to win it all. What is there to say about Brady? He wins. And puts up numbers doing it. It’s not just the four rings. His six Super Bowl appearances, 11 Conference Championship Game appearances and 22 playoff victories as a QB are unparalleled records. His 5th most successful team was the one that went 18-1 after he broke the single-season passing TD record. He’s led the league in passing twice and touchdowns four times. He’s an 11-time Pro Bowler, 4-time All-Pro and a 2-time MVP — and the only ever unanimous NFL MVP. He’s got everything you could want in terms of winning and if he plays a few more years, he’ll probably have all the meaningful career passing records as well — or at least get very close. But even at 38, he still was an All-Pro and knocking on the door of yet another Super Bowl appearance. Love him or hate him, this is the greatest quarterback in the history of football. He’s still the best one. Long live the GOAT.