Charm City Takes

My Preview of the 2015 Baltimore Ravens

By: Jeff McDonough

The NFL season kicked off last night in Foxboro with Brady and Gronk running roughshod all over the Steelers’ porous defense. For many fanbases around the country, and locally, the true kickoff to the season comes Sunday when 26 more teams begin their season, including your Baltimore Ravens.

The 2014 campaign was a rollercoaster ride for the Ravens. Injuries piled up in their defensive backfield and eventually forced them to play their 12^th option at cornerback. Yes. Seriously. Twelve. Ahem… Jimmy Smith, Lardarius Webb, Asa Jackson, Aaron Ross, Chykie Brown, Dominique Franks, Anthony Levine, Danny Gorrer, Matt Elam, Tramain Jacobs and Rashaan Melvin all had to struggle, get injured, cut or benched before street free agent Antoine Cason saw the field. That makes 12. The low point was when Ben Roethlisberger threw for six touchdowns vs. Baltimore on Sunday Night Football in Week 9. They astoundingly rebounded from this and returned to the playoffs after missing out on the postseason the season prior — the only such season in the seven year Harbaugh-Flacco Era. They promptly went back into Pittsburgh in the Wild Card Round and this time emerged with an impressive 30-17 victory, which marked the first time they had ever defeated the Steelers in the playoffs after failing in their first three tries. The Ravens even gave the eventual Super Bowl champs a hell of a run for their money in Foxboro before coming up just short. A seemingly sour season had ended on some really high notes.

So as we look forward to 2015, let’s break down what we have with this Ravens team, and take a look at all the position groups.

Quarterback

Yeah, they’re pretty set there. Please no one ever say the word “elite” again. It’s such a stupid debate where no parameters or meaning are ever defined. Flacco is a very good quarterback. Period. He’s not a Pro Bowler stats guy, but he plays his best football when it matters most. He’s like the Derek Fisher or Robert Horry of quarterbacks. As cliché as the term “clutch” is, it is truly one of the most important aspects of sport. If you tell me I’m in Super Bowl 50 and I can pick any QB to win me that one game, Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger and Flacco are my top four choices, no doubt. He also happens to have the strongest arm in the league and he’s never missed a game in his career. As far as stats, he did set career highs last season in yards, touchdowns and QBR. Plus, he actually would have been a Pro Bowler, if his stupid kid didn’t have a January birthday.

Running Back

After the ugly Ray Rice situation last year, the Ravens seemed to be in trouble on the field, not just off of it. Rice was cut, Bernard Pierce was garbage and Lorenzo Taliaferro was a rookie out of Coastal Carolina. Luckily, a 29 year-old journeyman Justin Forsett came in and picked up where Rice left off in his prime, amassing over 1,200 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns and 44 catches — making the Pro Bowl in his own right. So shouldn’t we be worried about an aging RB who might be a flash in the pan? Well, I say no. Forsett has averaged 5.1 yards per carry throughout his career. He has always done good things when he's touched the ball. He just had never really gotten the chance to be the man until last season. But him taking so long to break out might also help with the aging concern because he has just 582 career carries. He’s a young 29, as far a tread on the tires. Plus, with this offensive line, almost anybody would excel. Taliaferro is banged up, but will serve as a nice bruising backup who compliments the diminutive Forsett well. They also drafted Javorius Allen out of USC, so there is some depth. At fullback, Harvard man Kyle Juszczyk is a versatile guy who can block, run and catch all pretty well; he just needs to avoid those fumbles.

Wide Receiver

This is the area of biggest concern for me. Steve Smith returns for what he has announced as his final season. He’s still awesome. He’s still as tough and as feisty as ever. The explosiveness still shows up intermittently, which is impressive for a 36 year-old. However, after letting Torrey Smith walk — he bolted to San Fran for a cool 40 mil — and cutting Jacoby Jones, they are left without a single deep threat at the moment. That seems like a waste because, again, Joe Flacco has the strongest arm in the league. I like Kamar Aiken a lot as a guy with great leaping ability who can do a bit of everything. Marlon Brown burst onto the scene as an undrafted rookie in 2013 doing an admirable job trying to replace Anquan Boldin’s role essentially. Brown has had nagging injuries, mainly to his back, that persist to the present, so unfortunately it’s hard to count on him despite the initial promise. Michael Campanaro, banged up as well, is a sort of prototypical slot receiver and I have been impressed by his skillset for that role. He also looks to be forced into a role as the primary kick returner. Steve Smith and Lardarius Webb are supposedly options there too, but I don’t know how wise it is to throw aging starters your relying on into a special teams role.

The absent name is rookie Breshad Perriman, the speedster the Ravens drafted in this year’s first round. He has had a mysterious, nagging right knee injury since the first day of training camp and has not even practiced since July. Perriman’s health could end up being the key to the Ravens’ season. It’s scary how much the team is relying on a rookie with no timetable to return. I understand why they let Torrey go. They didn’t want to pay a guy who wasn’t a true, well-rounded #1 receiver. And they promptly drafted Perriman to immediately replace him and stretch the field with his 4.24 speed. I loved the pick at the time. It’s exactly what the team needed. Smith’s value — and hopefully Perriman’s — isn’t that he was always catching deep TD bombs. That happens only every so often. It was that the threat of him doing that was always there. It keeps the corners honest and opens up the underneath routes. It helps the run game by keeping the safeties from crowding the box. And when Flacco actually does decide to throw it downfield, a catch isn’t the only positive outcome. Smith drew 11 pass interference penalties last year for 229 yards. That’s five flags and 100 yards more than the next closest guy in all of football. This was a giant part of their offense that won’t be there now, unless Perriman can get healthy and get acclimated.

For these reasons, that decision to cut Jacoby Jones looks awfully ill-advised now. Jones was due a $2.5 million base salary and the Ravens just decided they were done with the 2012 playoff hero and former All-Pro kick returner. A bout of the “dropsies” derailed his season early on and he fell out of the receiver rotation. Some boneheaded muffed punts and kickoffs taken out of the end zone irked the coaching staff as well. I understand their desire to move on, but it just wasn’t prudent financially, and now apparently for depth reasons either. I’m (illogically) chalking up these blunders to the "Curse of Kubiak "— Jones had these same issues under Kubs in Houston, but never had any issues with them in Baltimore until Jones reunited with him as his OC. Jones was cut to save a measly $750,000 and he is still counting $2.625 million against this year’s cap in dead money. The Ravens are still about $4 million under the cap after finalizing their roster, also. And Jones signed with the Chargers as a replacement for the departed Eddie Royal —although some will argue that he’ll never be Royal — for essentially the same salary that the Ravens balked at as too pricey. Now with Perriman out for a still undetermined amount of time, and with limited options for the return man roll, it would’ve been awesome if they wouldn’t have essentially paid a guy to go away who’s proven to be capable in both those roles. This isn’t the biggest deal, but it’s often the little things that bother me on principle. Just like how after winning the Super Bowl they similarly paid Bernard Pollard to go away and let Ed Reed play his last game in a freakin’ Jets uniform, all so they could replace them with Michael Huff and Matt Elam. I digress. If healthy, I like the receiving core a lot. That seems to be a huge “if” though. So I'm apprehensive.

Tight End

Another area with questions, but I like the talent here a little bit. I liked the pick of Maxx Williams as the top tight end talent in this year’s draft — especially how they moved ahead of the Steelers to make sure they got him instead of them. He’s been banged up though and tight end is a difficult position to break into as a rookie. Crockett Gillmore will probably begin as the starter in his second year. He showed some promise in last year’s stretch run, but we still don’t know if he’s a starting caliber tight end yet. Dennis Pitta will start the season on the PUP list and miss at least the first six games. No one has any idea if he will play at all. If he can get on the field at any point for the Ravens it will just be gravy. He’s a talented player who’s had great chemistry with Flacco and  has always performed on the field regardless of any lingering injury. He just needs to get on the field, and that is very much in doubt. So there’s pros and cons with this group, but I’m glad they have three options to choose from and increase their odds of hitting on something, like they did with Owen Daniels last year.

Offensive Line

This may be the biggest strength of team. After an abysmal 2013 running the football, this group dominated last year in both the run game and the pass game. Marhal Yanda is not only the best player on this team now, but the best offensive lineman in the league. Robert Mays, writer and offensive line guru for Grantland, has referred to Yanda as “essentially a human version of the boulder from Raiders of the Lost Ark.” Accurate. As for the other guard Kelechi Osemele, Mays said, “When he’s at his best he’s one of the most physically dominant players you’ll ever see.” After struggling with his health, Osemele was finally right last year and man, did it show. The only negative is that they’re both free agents next year. The acquisition of Jeremy Zuttah proved to be a sage one, as the undersized but shifty center was a perfect fit for Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme. New offensive coordinator Marc Trestman — another move I liked a lot; this dude is a very creative offensive mind — has said he will keep essentially the same scheme in place this year for the O-line. Eugene Monroe is a solid left tackle, who the Ravens have locked up long term at a reasonable salary. Rick Wagner stepped in as a fifth round draftee in year two and was instantly one of the best right tackles in football, before missing the playoffs with a foot injury. I am a big fan of all five of these players. This is one of the best three lines in football. They weren’t even fully healthy last year and still managed all that success, including turning their #4 running back into a Pro Bowler and guiding Flacco into his best statistical season. Because of those injuries, rookie backups John Urschel and James Hurst received meaningful playing time and both showed talent and growth. So now those two are primed and ready to step in if any more injuries should arise. The line has dealt with injuries a tad during the preseason, but nothing appears serious. This group is tremendous and the most exciting part of the team to me.

Defensive Line

The Ravens unloaded longtime Raven Haloti Ngata for salary cap reasons, leaving Terrell Suggs as the only remaining member of that Ravens Hall of Fame caliber defensive foursome who once shared the field for seven seasons. He may not even be missed. Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan are young studs inside, and they didn’t miss a beat during Ngata’s four game suspension last year. Rookie Carl Davis looks like he may be as well. He was an absolute steal for the Ravens at pick #90 in the draft — a late first round talent who basically fell only because no one felt like picking a defensive tackle. Veteran Chris Canty and sophomore Kapron Lewis-Moore round out this appealing unit. Jernigan himself has a lingering right knee injury, so that’s a situation that is worth monitoring.

Linebacker

Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs combined for a league-leading 29 sacks last season. This is a dominant duo of veterans and hopefully age will not catch up with them because that’s the only concern with these pass rushers. Courtney Upshaw has always done a nice job as a run stopper on the edge, allowing Suggs and Dumervil to attack the quarterback. Albert McClellan and Za'Darius Smith are perfectly adequate backups here. My favorite part of this group though is the inside linebacker duo of CJ Mosely and Daryl Smith. It’s a perfect combination of the wily veteran and the explosive youngster, and they wreaked havoc last year against the run and the pass. Man, I hope neither of these guys gets hurt because… Arthur Brown, yikes! Even so, the front seven looks loaded and should be a big strength for this team. Mosely looks like a superstar in the making.

Cornerback

Ah. We’ve reached the object of ire for many last season. But despite what you may think, this group looks pretty good on paper this year. Jimmy Smith is back from his stint on IR and looks healthy. Smith had developed into a true, shut down corner with length and speed before a Lisfranc injury ended his season. I’m very excited to have him back. Lardarius Webb was awful while dealing with chronic back pain, but he actually started to play much better down the stretch. He was tasked with covering Antonio Brown in the playoffs and I thought did an admirable job of “limiting” him, ya know, as much as any human person can "limit" Antonio Brown. And you noticed it wasn’t Webb that Tom Brady was torching in the Divisional Round. Webb once again has nagging injuries though, so his health could again be his demise. I’m not writing him off because I think he still can be effective, especially playing next to Jimmy Smith, but I am concerned. I really liked the late offseason pick up of Kyle Arrington from New England.

Rashaan Melvin showed last year that, hey, maybe you don’t want someone going right from the practice squad to starting against Tom Brady in the playoffs. Who knew? However, I think that experience has helped him a lot and we did see some signs of a real player leading up to that nightmare game. He's also gotten rave reviews from the coaching staff this preseason. Sure, you don’t want him as your #1. But your #4 or #5? Yeah, I’ll take that. They also drafted Tray Walker in round four. Asa Jackson was signed to the practice squad and I’ve been a fan of his talent any time he’s been on the field — which admittedly has been rare due to injuries and suspensions. My point is, they have some decent players here. Last year, the issue for this group wasn’t the talent. It was that all the talented guys were in street clothes. If they can avoid being down to their 12^th option at corner again, they should be fine. For some perspective, they only used five players at CB the entire 2013 season, so last year was likely — and hopefully — an aberration.

Safety

This was another weak spot last year that I like on paper. Will Hill has always been a good player when he can get on the field. In his three year career, Hill has been suspended three times for failed drug tests and arrested twice for failure to pay child support. However, he has had no issues since arriving in Baltimore and appears to have made a genuine effort to turn his life around. His arrival in the secondary midway through last season really helped keep this group afloat enough to make the playoffs when that didn’t seem possible beforehand. I like the addition of Kendrick Lewis a lot, and I think that’ll be a big upgrade from last year. Terrence Brooks and Anthony Levine — now listed at safety after playing a lot of corner last year — I think are talented young backups. If healthy, this secondary is not only not a weakness, it’s pretty good.

Special Teams

Despite the kick return questions I outlined earlier, the special teams unit looks strong. Justin Tucker and Sam Koch, for my money, are the best kicker-punter duo in the NFL. Adam Vinatieri and Pat McAfee have a strong case in Indy, to be fair. Tucker has gotten his praise in his young career for his big leg and ability to make clutch kicks — he’s been selected First-Team All-Pro. Sam Koch, however, I feel is highly underrated. Koch is the second longest tenured Raven after Suggs and has been one of the most consistent punters in the league for almost a decade. Everyone always says that it’s a game of field position, yet the punter never gets any love. There are often games where the O and the D are struggling and I say, “Sam Koch is our best player right now.” Hyperbole? Perhaps. But a few punts inside the ten can get the blood pumping! And c’mon, he’s a Westminster guy, so I’m partial. Oh, and I really don’t know the first thing about long snappers, other than what you can gather from the name of the position alone, but Morgan Cox seems like a chill dude.

So needless to say, I am feeling pretty good about the Ravens. Not only did they make these strides by last season’s end, a return to health is expected. No team can suffer that wrath of injuries to one position group two years in a row, can they? Knock on wood, knock on wood, knock on wood. It’s the Ravens’ competition amongst the NFL’s elite that is most driving my hope, though. The Patriots got worse — lost their top three corners, including Darelle freakin’ Revis. The Seahawks got worse — injuries and holdouts are wrecking the Legion of Boom. The Packers got worse — R.I.P. Jordy’s Knee. The Broncos got worse — their left tackle is on IR, their freak tight end wears teal now and Peyton is 39. The Cowboys are maybe worse too ­— peace out, 2014 Offensive Player of the Year. The Lions definitely are worse — Suh-th Beach…? The Bengals got worse — okay, I actually don’t know if they did, but c’mon, they’re the Bengals. They certainly didn’t get any better and their top two draft picks were offensive tackles who aren’t even going to play. The Steelers D looks abysmal and the injuries and suspensions are starting to pile up already. The Colts actually did get better — loading up on offense with vets Frank Gore and Andre Johnson and rookie Phillip Dorsett — but their garbage run defense still hasn’t. You betting on them in January? Go ‘head. And the other teams that got better — Philly, Miami, KC, Bills, NYJ, Falcons, Vikings — haven’t done enough to ascend to contender status to me.

I don’t think there is a single excellent team in the league. All of these teams are flawed and have lost irreplaceable guys, even at the tippy top. Maybe by playoff time Seattle will be healthy and Jimmy Graham will be lighting it up and they will be that excellent team. Right now there’s cause for concern in the Pacific Northwest, but they’d be my top bet to right the ship. As for the Ravens place in this mix, they have just as good a chance as anyone, especially in the AFC. Their schedule isn’t exceedingly difficult, facing the AFC West and NFC West, but their main benefit is the two different opponents they have from their competition for the division. After finishing third in the division, the Ravens face Miami and Jacksonville, while the Bengals have Buffalo and Houston and the Steelers get New England and Indianapolis. With all of their other opponents the same, the difference in these two matchups could be a huge swing for the Ravens, especially concerning Pittsburgh’s tough draw.

My official prediction is that the Ravens go 10-6 and win the division. I think they’ll deal with some injuries during the regular season — and that’ll explain some of the six losses — but then they’ll hit their stride toward the playoffs as they always seem to do. In the playoffs, I believe they are right there with New England and Indianapolis as the teams with the best chance of heading to the Super Bowl. Injuries are a caveat on every season in the NFL. So that’s just a lazy proviso to throw on. It should be implicit. There are some concerning ones right now in areas of need that trouble me, but I’m thinking and hoping that none are serious. When you look around the league at some of the key players that are already on IR, I’ll count the Ravens as lucky. Perriman, Webb and Jernigan will be relied upon, so I guess I’m betting on them getting right. Only time will tell and I can’t wait to watch. I’ve heard some Ravens fans with tempered expectations and a lack of faith in the team’s chances as contenders. I balk at them and say, “Look around. None of these teams are great. Everyone has warts.” Last year, I think a lot of people expected in Week 1 to eventually see New England vs. Seattle in the Super Bowl. I don’t think this year will be nearly as predictable. This could be one of the most wide open NFL seasons in a long time.